Markets respond to three factors
1. Liquidity
2. Sentiment
3. Value
Often the value-seeking investor becomes dejected with the grip of Liquidity & Sentiment over the markets. However, the play of these factors also present buying and selling opportunities to value investor.
Research proves that long term in investing is really a period of 12 years or more. Most investors may not have such patience. But at least 5-7 years investing period is necessary to ‘realize’ value inherent in stocks. I would classify anything less than 3 years as ‘short term’.
Some key things in analysing value is
1.Attractive PE Ratio
Peter Lynch postulated a thumb rule that PE = Expected Growth. However this principle has been misused during frenzied Bull Runs , with companies in certain hot sectors ( retail, real estate etc..) commanding PE of 100, 200 etc.
Frankly in the long term , can a company grow at 100-200% ? There was a time Infosys was quoting at 140 PE. Frankly if Infosys grew like that sustainably it could give India’s GDP a run for money in the long term.
My thumb rules are simple
A. Whatever be the investment argument, never BUY at a PE of above 30. And whatever be the temptation, always SELL when PE is above 80
B. For High Growth companies, I have a version of Peter Lynch called PE = 7 + 0.4 (Growth Rate). So if the growth is 30% , I would be comfortable with a PE of 19 or less
We get value if we get a company with a PE far less, than our calculation then clearly we see value.
2. Good EBDITA or PBDIT Margins & Good Margin Growth (vis-a-vis Sectors)
It is important that EBDITA margins are high. Now what is high depends on the sector , one is investing it. EBDITA margin is the true measure of business success/viability. However over a 5 year period it is important that EBDITA grows.
It is important to look at defining the competition with which to compare EBDITA with. One cannot for example look at Tata Steel & Welspun Gujarat and compare margins presuming both of them to be present in steel.
Frankly if a company’s growth is a lot higher than sector growth, the important thing to ask is whether this is real ?
3. Book Value & Absolute Sales in Relation to Market Cap
I also look at Price/Book & Price/Sales ratios. Although it is by no means sacrosanct, but if company is available at Price/Book of less than 1 & Price/Sales of Less than 1 , then I get a good sense of reassurance.
4. Solvency of the Company as measured by Interest Cover etc.
Frankly I think Interest Cover gives an indication of strength of earnings in relation to debt. Interest Cover is defined as Interest Cover= EBDITA/Interest.
Frankly this is a common sense indicator & a company must have an interest cover of 3 or more. This is important also for Banks & Credit Rating agencies. A good credit rating like AAA from Crisil implies an interest cover of 16.2 or more; Whereas a BBB is 2.3
The other important ratio to understand this is Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR)= (EBDITA- Tax)/(Interest + Annual Principal Repayment). Here one usually assumes the principal repayment over 5-8 years. A DSCR of 1.6-1.8 is acceptable, and below that is worrisome. Typically DSCR is good in the range of 1.6-2.1. Frankly if DSCR is more than 2.1 , the bankers would ask the company /business planner to retire the debts early
Frankly Debt/Equity (Net Worth) makes sense only from a sectoral perspective. Typically the comfortable ratios of Services should be less than 1, Steel around 2.5, Power around 4, Infrastructure around 5-10. Frankly which promoter will invest in a road project unless a 5:1 debt ratio is made available.
5. Sustainable Competitive Advantage or Moat
If you want to invest in the long term, you should be clear that the business has some differentiating advantages that are difficult to copy/beat.
These could be a product/technology related advantage, Brand/Image related advantage, Distribution/Retail network advantage or a Regulatory advantage.
Sustainability of profits need a Moat
6. Ability of Business & Category to Grow
The other critical things to understand are whether the business can be scalable. Also the growth rates of category need to be high.
An important factor again is to understand is how high is the operating leverage. Businesses with low operating leverage are preferred since they do not depend on whims/fancies of a few customers.
7. Past Record of Growth
One would want a business with a high CAGR of at least 10-15% for the following indicators over last 5 years. This is critical to assess the capabilities of the companies.
One would want Sales, Equity, EPS, ROCE & EPS to grow more than 15% to be secure in the belief that the company has a good pedigree and aptitude for growth.
8. Soft Factors like Management Capability & One’s Interest/Understanding of Category/Business
This includes our own comfort with understanding the company and the business. It also includes our view of management , its capability, corporate governance etc.
Capability of management can be to an extent determined by efficiency ratios like Credit Days, Inventory Turnover, Cash Flow Efficiency ( Receivable/Sales)
9. Minimum Criteria for ROCE & ROE
Fundamentally a business must return a risk premium of 5-6% over Government bonds. In India, the average rate of bonds is 7%, so the ROCE must be at least 12%.
ROCE is EBIT/ Capital Employed( Shareholder’s Funds + Debt + Deferred Tax)
ROE is a good indicator of share price value ROE is PAT/Net Worth. Fundamentally the ROCE & ROE should be along similar lines.
For debt free companies ROCE does not make any sense. A brilliant ROE and a weak ROCE could be a sign of worry (Depreciation or Interest is not accounted properly, Other income too high)
10. Other Miscellaneous Indicators- Good to Have , not Necessary
If company is a good dividend paying company ( 2% yield or above), with a track record of consistent & increasing dividends then it can give high dividends over the long term on capital invested.
A low Beta of less than 1 , is also useful since it shows some degree of protection from market volatility.
Besides other indicators of value, things like embedded value i.e Comparison of Assets (Land Bank), Holdings/Investments in Other Companies or Cash may be significant when compared to market capitalization